GENIE ACADEMY: Basic Betting Concepts
Read what the following terms mean so you can start correctly and manage long-term fluctuations in betting (for beginners and advanced players).
What does bankroll mean?
In betting, the bankroll is the total capital you have available exclusively for placing bets.
In simpler terms: it’s the money you decide to “set aside” only for betting, without affecting your expenses or other money you need for daily life.
What does bankroll management mean?
Bankroll management is the strategy of managing your money (bankroll) in betting so that you:
• ✅ Reduce the risk of losing your entire capital.
• ✅ Maintain long-term “life” in the game.
• ✅ Consistently increase your profits when you are doing well.
Essentially, it means determining how much to bet on each wager, depending on the size of your bankroll and your confidence in the selection.
What does staking plan mean?
A staking plan in betting is the system by which you decide how much money to bet on each wager, based on your bankroll and strategy.
In other words:
• Bankroll management is the “overall money management plan.”
• Staking plan is the “rule” you follow to determine the size of each bet.
What does variance mean?
Variance in betting is the natural variability of your results—that is, the irregularities or swings (winning or losing streaks) that occur even if you are playing correctly and with value.
In simpler terms:
• You don’t always win even when you’ve made a “correct” bet.
• You may lose streaks even though your selections had positive expected value.
• You may also win streaks purely by luck, even if your selections had no value.
What does ROI (Return on Investment) mean?
ROI (Return on Investment) in betting shows the percentage of profit or loss relative to the total money you have bet. It is perhaps the most important indicator to measure if you are profitable long-term.
ROI formula:
ROI = \frac{Net\ Profit}{Total\ Staked} \times 100\%
• Net Profit = (Total Returns – Total Staked)
• The result is a percentage (%).
Examples:
1. Profitable ROI
• Total bet: €1,000
• Total returns: €1,100
• Net profit = €100
• ROI = 100 / 1,000 = +10%
➝ For every €1, you earned €0.10
2. Negative ROI
• Total bet: €1,000
• Total returns: €900
• Net profit = -€100
• ROI = -100 / 1,000 = -10%
➝ For every €1, you lost €0.10
⚖️ In betting:
• A positive ROI (e.g., +5% to +10%) long-term indicates you have an edge.
• A negative ROI indicates your system/strategy is losing.
• That’s why professional bettors don’t measure “how much they earned on a single bet” but look at ROI over hundreds or thousands of bets.
What does Value Bet mean?
A value bet is a bet where the actual probability of an outcome occurring is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker’s odds.
In simpler terms: when you find a selection that has better odds than its true probability, you have value.
How to recognize it:
• The bookmaker provides odds → this implies a specific probability.
• Odds 2.00 = 50% probability
• Odds 1.50 = 66.6% probability
• Odds 3.00 = 33.3% probability
• You (through analysis/model/estimation) believe the event has a higher probability than the odds imply.
Example:
• Bookmaker: Odds 2.20 for Team A to win
→ Implies a probability of ~45.4%
• Your analysis: Team A actually has a 55% chance of winning
Here, there is a value bet because:
• If the bet were played 100 times, you would win long-term.
• The “true” odds should have been ~1.82, but you get 2.20.
Conclusion:
• Value betting = the foundation for long-term profit in betting.
• It doesn’t matter to “guess correctly” on a few bets, but to consistently play selections with value.
• Even if you lose individual bets (due to variance), over time you will make a profit.